Crises come and go but no matter what, house prices always rise, right? That’s just what they do in this country. According to data from Nationwide, house prices in the UK rose by 21% on average during the 1990s and 33% during the 2010s. This is why property, like gold, has been considered as a “safe” investment in recent decades. So safe that they even appear to be pandemic-proof. Since lockdown eased and Chancellor of the Exchequer cut stamp duty, various different house price indices have reported a housing market “boom”. This reached an apex last week when Nationwide reported that house prices had seen their highest monthly rise in more than 16 years, reaching an “all-time high”. Prices rose by two per cent in August, the lender said, taking the average price to £224,123. This news has evoked a frenzied response from homeowners excited to make money on their investment, would-be buyers who worry they will now have to pay above the odds and jaded perennial renters who fear this is yet another nail in the coffin of their homeownership hopes alike. However, all is not quite as it seems, and housing market experts are still advising caution and even tentatively predicting a fall in house prices when the economic impact of the pandemic on the economy is felt later this autumn. But commentators rightly point out that house price indices only reflect those who are able to buy. Lots of people were unable to afford to buy a home before the pandemic hit and even more will be unable to now. Job losses, pay cuts, and the ongoing mortgage crunch will all limit the ability of people, particularly young people, to buy a home. While the demand that pent up during lockdown – when the housing market was frozen – may be driving price increases, that’s only part of the picture. The market is currently in a strange state of stasis because it has effectively been protected from the immediate economic cost of the pandemic by low mortgage rates, the Government’s stamp duty cut, mortgage payment holidays and the furlough scheme. This means that we may not see exactly what effect this pandemic will have on the market for some time yet. As these end, the downwards pressure on the housing market will increase. There is also the uncertainty of what Brexit will bring. In the absence of a sustained and widespread economic recovery that would probably require a vaccine, 2021 could end up being the year the pandemic hits the housing market.