Pfizer and BioNTech recently announced that their coronavirus vaccine had been stunningly successful in trials. Moderna followed a week later, and then AstraZeneca and Oxford University. The stock market looks ahead and it’s not hard to see that a vaccinated world will improve the fortunes of beaten-down sectors. How much improvement, and how quickly? Answers are impossible, but stock market investors are clearly betting on normal life being restored at speed, at least at the level of individual companies. There’s even some talk of some “Roaring Twenties” years as consumers come out of hibernation. Stock markets are prone to wild swings – and one should note that EasyJet’s and Wetherspoon’s share prices, for example, are still about a third lower than they were on 1 January. But amid the din of conflicting signals, the rapid rebound thesis can’t be entirely dismissed. It could happen. Look at recent events in the retail industry. On one hand, the spectacular failures of Arcadia and Debenhams threaten 25,000 jobs. On the other, shoppers queued for hours to get into Primark stores and the big supermarket chains said trading had been excellent in recent weeks (one reason why they’re now returning their business rates relief). There is demand and cash out there. Add vaccines into the mix and it’s possible to imagine a mini-boom. There may still be 2.6 million unemployed in mid-2021 – as Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, warned in his spending review – but those who kept their jobs will be feeling financially safer than they have done in ages. Their debts will probably be lower because they didn’t have a summer holiday and lockdown was a frugal experience. House prices have not collapsed and interest rates look likely to stay low. Why not spend? You can see why share prices in consumer-facing companies are reacting.

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