British inflation unexpectedly jumped above the Bank of England’s target in May when it hit 2.1%, part of a post-lockdown climb in prices that is expected to gather pace. The acceleration of the consumer price index from April’s 1.5% largely reflected how weak inflation was in May 2020 when the economy was reeling from its first tight lockdown. The figure represented the first time inflation has gone above the BoE’s 2% target in almost two years and was above all 33 forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists which had pointed to a rise in inflation to 1.8%. Yields on British government bonds rose early on Wednesday with the yield on two-year gilts – which are sensitive to speculation about BoE policy moves – briefly touching their highest in nearly a month. Investors around the world are assessing the risks of a sustained jump in prices, especially in the United States where annual inflation hit 5.0% in May, the highest in almost 13 years, and where President Joe Biden has proposed a $6 trillion stimulus package. Whether the upside news proves temporary or persistent, it is clearly a hawkish surprise. Of course, some major uncertainties, such as the end of the furlough scheme in September, remain. But if the upside surprises continue, calls for a rate rise on the Monetary Policy Committee may grow louder. The CPI data showed fuel prices in May were almost 18% higher than a year earlier while clothing and footwear costs rose by 2.1% as people, emerging from their lockdown isolation, bought new outfits. The price data was collected on or around May 11, before pubs and restaurants were allowed to serve customers indoors and cinemas and hotels reopened from May 17. The BoE has said it expects inflation to hit 2.5% by the end of this year before settling back to its 2% target as the impact of post-lockdown energy price rises fades along with other cost pressures, such as bottlenecks in supply chains.

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