The so-called Northern Ireland protocol, agreed as part of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in 2019, sets out how trade works in the region following the U.K.’s exit from the EU. The protocol was drawn up to protect the EU’s single market post-Brexit while avoiding a politically sensitive hard border between Northern Ireland, part of the U.K., and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member country. The agreement includes a nuclear option — either side can unilaterally suspend it if they can show it isn’t working. The British government is now threatening to pull the trigger. But will they? And what happens if they do? Article 16 allows either side — the U.K. or the EU — to adopt unilateral measures to protect itself if the agreement has led to “serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade.” However, this tool is not conceived as a permanent way to suspend the protocol — or parts of it. Either side triggering Article 16 should limit their actions to those strictly necessary to tackle whatever problems they are trying to address, and these actions should only be in place until the two sides can agree to longer-term solutions. The U.K. could, for instance, impose their own model of customs paperwork for trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland on a temporary basis. Since July, Britain has argued the threshold for using Article 16 has been met, according to a senior U.K. official, and it is collecting data to prove that point if necessary. Both sides have tried putting forward their own solutions to try to make the trade rules work better. Four weeks of talks on how to make the checks required by the protocol less burdensome for people and businesses trading with the region have increased the U.K.’s understanding of the EU’s proposals put forward in October, but the gap is still substantial, according to officials on both sides. It had been widely expected the British would trigger Article 16 in the second half of November. The U.K. is willing to allow the talks to proceed for a few more weeks, a second British official said, with a fifth round set to take place in Brussels. The U.K. previously indicated talks on the protocol should yield solutions by the end of the year, but a Commission official said Thursday that the EU has no deadline.
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